The TikTok Bottle Trend That Fueled ELF's 50% Rally

This is a case study showcasing our TikTok sentiment dataset and alpha-detection framework.

Summary:

In spring 2025, a quirky TikTok lip gloss hack ignited millions of Gen Z views – and those tracking TikTok sentiment saw the $ELF ( ▼ 3.36% ) rally coming well before Wall Street reacted. This case study shows how social data turned into alpha, and why TikTok is becoming an essential channel for market intelligence.

• Early Signal: Viral DIY “mixing” hack emerged on TikTok two weeks before ELF’s ~50% stock surge.

• Massive Reach: e.l.f.’s 2.4M followers helped drive 54M views from just six videos

• Supporting Momentum: Subsidiary Naturium rode the wave, with two viral skincare posts totaling 24M views.

• Stock Lead: Price action began in early-to-mid May, well before the May 28th Rhode acquisition announcement

  

1. Built-In Amplifier: Loyal Fanbase + Positive Sentiment

Before the viral moment, e.l.f. had laid the groundwork:

• 2.4M TikTok followers and consistent sentiment scores above 0.7 (on a 0–1 scale, where 1.0 = extremely positive).

• This baseline meant any viral event would instantly reach millions of receptive viewers, a key multiplier for real-world impact.

Investor takeaway: A strong, engaged audience turns small sparks into full-on market-moving fires.

2. The Viral Spark: DIY Mixing Hack

April 2025: TikTok creators began emptying e.l.f. Halo Glow lip gloss bottles, cleaning them, and refilling with custom “jumbo” gloss mixtures. The trend exploded:

• Top video: 18.7M views (@jenna..kollmann)

• Top 6 videos: 54M views - 16% of total views during that period

• Mixing posts: average 5× more views and 10× higher engagement than average product reviews

Investor takeaway: The viral mixing trend was a clear outlier event in e.l.f.’s social data – a rare spike that can act as an early buy signal.

3. Steady Drumbeat of Positive Reviews

While mixing content went viral, product reviews continued to maintain high positive sentiment and accounted for 76% of the content during the analysis period.

• Skincare reviews: 40.86% of total posts | Avg. sentiment 0.74

• Lip product reviews: 35.55% of total posts | Avg. sentiment 0.70

Investor takeaway: Positive baseline sentiment ensured viral spikes translated into real conversions and brand credibility, not fleeting hype.

4. Naturium’s Bonus Lift

Even e.l.f.’s skincare line Naturium saw viral boosts:

• Target haul: 14.5M views | Sentiment 0.95

• Doctor endorsement: 9.6M views | Sentiment 0.85

Investor takeaway: Multi-brand virality compounds the impact, suggesting broader business momentum.

5. The Market Moves Before Rhode Acquisition

In early-to-mid May, $ELF ( ▼ 3.36% ) ’s stock began a sustained climb, two full weeks before the Rhode Beauty acquisition announcement and earnings:

• Social buzz was peaking while the news cycle was silent.

• Price action indicated sentiment-driven buying before traditional catalysts hit.

• The Rhode acquisition and strong earnings release later accelerated this momentum, but the rally was already well underway - underscoring that TikTok activity provided the earliest signal of the move.

Investor takeaway: The convergence of views and post volume with actionable lead time created the alpha insight to capture the bulk of the rally.

Key Findings for Investors

• TikTok Sentiment as Leading Indicator: Social engagement spikes preceded ELF’s rally by ~14 days.

• Concentration of Impact: A few viral posts drove most of the value – the signal in the noise.

• Cross-Brand Momentum: Viral trends lifted multiple product lines.

• Foundational Strength: High baseline sentiment allowed viral trends to convert into market impact.

Don’t Miss the Next One

This isn’t an isolated case. TikTok is increasingly where consumer trends break first – long before earnings calls or press releases. For hedge funds, this is an untapped alpha source hiding in plain sight.

→ Ready to capture the next viral-driven rally?
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Disclosure:

No investment recommendation is made. This is a case study showcasing our TikTok sentiment dataset and alpha-detection framework.