TikTok Saw On Running Fade and Salomon Rise. The Market Sold Both.

HOKA, On and Salomon were built for runners and hikers. All three now also sell to people who wear them as everyday fashion. When On cut guidance on August 11, investors asked the same question of all three: is the fashion buyer leaving?

We answer it with two TikTok measures, calculated the same way for all three brands. Both cover posts about each brand by anyone, not just the brand's own account:

Here’s what the three conversations sound like on TikTok:

On's fashion share peaked at 35% in Q1 2026 and fell to 5% by Q3. The drop started in June, two months before the guidance cut: On's monthly fashion share fell to 10%, against 22% to 34% in every month of Q1, while ONON held roughly flat.

Fashion share was not the only warning. Viewers also saved fewer posts about On, the comments turned against the shoe, and views of fashion posts fell in absolute terms, not just as a share. Most of it happened before the cut. On's own numbers, reported on August 11, fit the same picture: inventory was building faster than sales.

The comments show the mood shifting. In Q1 2026, jokes that On was over, calling it dated, ugly or an old person's shoe, got 20% of the likes on comments about On, not counting the three biggest threads. That is the highest in our data, and it was spread across 14 threads, not one viral post. By Q2, commenters were joking about how common the shoe had become:

On August 11, On reported a fifth straight quarter of slower growth, cut guidance and cited a "more promotional environment" in the Americas. ONON fell 20% that day.

Salomon's fashion share rose from 24% to 46% over the same quarters that On's fell from 35% to 5%, and reached 49% in Q2 2026. Salomon's share is lowest in Q4 and Q1, when posts about its skis and ski boots take more of its views. A year earlier, in Q3 2025, it was 35%. Salomon's fashion views rose about 40% from Q1 to Q3 2026, in step with footwear overall, while On's fell about 80%.

Salomon's save rate rose from 4.7 in Q4 2025 to 5.7 in Q3 2026, now the highest of the three. Salomon named Jisoo global ambassador, and a post saying her pink pair sold out on Taobao drew 1.2M views.

Salomon's latest results were strong. On August 18, Amer reported that its Salomon division grew 35% in constant currency in Q2 2026, and it raised guidance that day and again on September 16. AS still fell 27% from August 10 to September 17. AS has also lagged since: it is up 15% from its low through October 19, against 32% for ONON, which announced a $1 billion buyback on September 22.

Salomon's division is only about a third of Amer's sales, so we measured Amer's other two big brands the same way:

HOKA's fashion share stayed between 3% and 9% every quarter of the past year. In July, Deckers said one shoe, the Mafate Speed 2, was “leading the HOKA brand’s acquisition of global lifestyle consumers.”

HOKA's save rate barely moved, at about 4 per 1,000 organic views. HOKA's paid and brand posts grew instead, from 39% of its views in Q3 2025 to 66% in Q3 2026.

HOKA is both losing unpaid attention and getting more paid and brand views. Its organic views were 44% lower in Q3 2026 than a year earlier, while its paid and brand views more than doubled.

HOKA posts about finding the shoes on sale at Costco, Ross and outlets got 11% of its organic views in September:

On the July 23 earnings call, CEO Stefano Caroti told analysts:

Three months later, on October 22, Deckers cut its full-year HOKA outlook. CFO Steve Fasching said U.S. shoppers “may be finding product through wholesalers, through wholesale online at heavier promotions.” Deckers says HOKA still sells mostly at full price.

Deckers' own inventory, across HOKA and UGG, was only 3% higher at the end of September than a year earlier, so the discounted pairs are not obviously Deckers' own excess stock. Its annual report names another route: a key customer "may liquidate excess inventory through discounted channels, including unauthorized sellers."

Fashion share puts the three brands in the same order as their latest revenue growth: Salomon, then On, then HOKA. Salomon's and On's save rates tell the same story, one rising and one falling. Saves are a useful check because they count what viewers chose to keep for later. Instagram agrees: from June to September, 41% of Instagram reels about Salomon were fashion posts, against 16% for On and 11% for HOKA.

This covers three brands. Since the TikTok shift, On and Deckers have both cut their outlooks, and Amer has raised its outlook twice.

Deckers, October 22. HOKA sales grew 7%, down from 8% the quarter before and 15% before that. Deckers cut its full-year HOKA outlook from low double digits to high single digits, and expects low to mid single digits this quarter. Deckers said U.S. online sales were held back by heavy discounting across athletic footwear, and that some of HOKA’s 2026 model updates did not resonate with shoppers. Earnings beat, helped by a one-time tariff refund. DECK opened 6% lower the next morning. Going in, HOKA’s organic TikTok views were down 44% from a year earlier, two-thirds of its views came from paid and brand posts, and shoppers were posting HOKAs on sale at Costco and Ross.

On, mid-November. The company reported Q3 on November 12 last year. On's fashion share is 5% heading into this report, and paid and brand posts are 75% of its views.

Amer, mid-November. Salomon's fashion share and save rate are near their highs. Salomon's paid and brand posts, up from 13% to 35% of its views over the year, are the thing to watch.

Email us at [email protected] or contact us here to see how TikTok and Instagram conversation shifts ahead of results for the consumer stocks you cover, and how our data can plug into your models.

Disclosure:

CredoIQ provides social-media-derived consumer sentiment data and executive interview data for public equities. No investment recommendation is made. This is a case study built from CredoIQ's data infrastructure, presented to illustrate signal mechanics, not as investment advice. This report was prepared with AI assistance and fully reviewed and verified by CredoIQ analysts. CredoIQ does not manage client capital. Past performance of any signal is not indicative of future results.

Methodology

Methodology Note: CredoIQ TikTok data on On, Salomon and HOKA, plus Arc’teryx and Wilson, from Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, with monthly figures for On. For each brand and period, we classified the most-viewed posts and most-liked comments without reference to company results, and re-checked a sample independently. All view figures are normalized for growth in TikTok viewing and in our data collection, with spam and same-name posts removed. Fashion share and comment figures leave out the three biggest posts or threads, so no single viral video drives a number. Salomon’s ski posts are included, which lowers its fashion share in Q4 and Q1. Paid and brand posts are ads, sponsored posts and posts from brand or retailer accounts. TikTok is not available in mainland China. Instagram figures cover June to September 2026. Company figures and quotes are from filings and earnings calls. Share prices are daily closes through October 19, 2026, except DECK’s opening price on October 23.

This is a single case study, not a backtest. No analyst ratings or price target changes are cited in this piece.