This is a case study showcasing CredoIQ’s TikTok sentiment dataset built for hedge funds. View our public equities leaderboard at credoiq.com.
Summary:
Two TikTok signals predicted Macy’s Q2 EPS beat of 116%+ three months early.
Signal 1 - Q2 Paid Ad Surge: Macy’s increased paid TikTok ads +95% QoQ (19 → 37), while views on ads rose +57% QoQ (51M → 80M). 9 of the 10 top-viewed posts about Macy’s in Q2 were ads.
Signal 2 - Organic Virality: Macy’s discount on the luxury Givenchy Flex Bracelet generated over 750K likes and 5M+ views on just the top 4 posts with no ad spend directed to it. This triggered a meme-craze that drove a surge in posts about Macy’s
While competitors cut TikTok spend after tariff headlines, Macy’s doubled down, buying cheaper reach and dominating share of voice. Ad intensity + organic virality became early, actionable signals of Macy’s Q2 upside, especially after its weak Q1.
1. Macy’s TikTok Advertising Blitz
Q1’25 → Q2’25 ad spend shift:
Q1 and Q2 refer to Macy’s fiscal quarters (Q1 = Feb-April, Q2 = May-July)
Paid ads: increased from 19 → 37 (+95%).
Views on Macy’s TikTok ads: increased from 51M → 80M (+57%).
Narrative dominance: 9 of the top 10 most-viewed posts about Macy’s in Q2 were ads. Paid ads captured ~½ of all TikTok views about Macy’s in Q2.
The paid advertising surge was targeted, with specific product categories and sales events driving significant view counts:
Seasonal product wins: Summer accessories (beaded bags) 24M+ views; summer sandal sale 10M+ views.
Event-driven: “Black Friday in July” (Jul 23–27; 40–60% off) ~10M views.
Fragrances: 4 of top 10 ads were perfumes; ~37M views combined.
Investor takeaway: A broad, price-pointed, promo-heavy push into seasonal categories bought cheap, high-intent reach exactly when competitors were less aggressive on TikTok, lifting sentiment and visibility ahead of Q2.
While top views came from paid ads, Macy’s most-liked posts told a different story about affordable luxury and the power of organic meme culture.
Price arbitrage narrative: The Givenchy bracelet was selling for $50 at Macy’s vs. $80–$180 elsewhere (e.g., Dillard’s).
Consumer reaction: TikTok users created memes around "flexing" these affordable luxury bracelets, pulling younger shoppers in-store.
No paid spend: Top 4 bracelet posts reached over 750K likes and 5M+ views without paid amplification.
Spike in posts: After the top 4 posts went viral, a “luxury flex” meme craze began driving a surge in posts about Macy’s.
Investor takeaway: TikTokers organically positioned Macy’s as the go-to for an affordable luxury. That drove free customer acquisition, improved category mix, and provided a leading signal of comp sales strength before earnings confirmed it.
3. Dissecting Views Vs. Likes
Views = management intent: When a retailer doubles ads, it’s an early signal of strategic bets.
Likes = consumer pull: When organic engagement spikes, it shows bottom-up demand that management can’t manufacture.
They combined for a two-signal confirmation: one top-down (ad spend) and one bottom-up (consumer reaction). That duality is why TikTok gave such a reliable read on $M ( ▼ 1.73% ) Q2 beat.
Key Findings for Investors
TikTok is the platform where retail demand is created, not merely discussed.
Multi-Signal Confirmation: Paid and organic signals converged on the same bullish read, raising conviction.
On-the-ground Proof: Staff & shopper anecdotes on social confirmed real traffic and inventory pressure.
Category Strategy: Seasonal accessories, event promos, and fragrances delivered outsized TikTok ROI (views and sentiment).
TikTok was the leading indicator of Macy’s Q2 momentum. The platform revealed both Macy’s deliberate ad push and an unexpected viral product trend, giving investors a chance to position early for a 116% earnings beat.
Don’t Miss the Next One
This isn’t an isolated case. TikTok is increasingly where consumer trends break first, long before earnings calls or press releases. For hedge funds, this is an untapped alpha source.
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Disclosure:
No investment recommendation is made. This is a case study showcasing our TikTok sentiment dataset and alpha-detection framework.